Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Two new IPL franchises were sold-off by BCCI at record high rates

Three years back, when IPL was born, Mukesh Ambani and Vijay Mallya paid Rs.441 & Rs.440 crore respectively to purchase Mumbai Indians and Bangalore Royal Challenger franchises. Many pundits had then questioned their vision, calling it nothing more than a mirage; they were wrong. IPL turned into a trusted and successful sporting brand, turning profitable during just the second year, for both the BCCI and the franchise owners. And what equity it had built in just the first year. Despite general elections forcing the entire tournament out of the country, brand IPL did not lose its glitter; instead it shone brighter, thanks to some great advertising prior to the third edition. According to market experts, IPL 3 will generate Rs.1000 crore in ad-revenues. Even in terms of viewership, IPL no longer looks a 3 year-old infant. TAM (Television Audience Measurement) reports prove how viewership has increased by 6% this season, as compared to IPL 2, with more than 67 million viewers watching the first three matches of IPL 3 in India alone. The story as far as global audience goes is similar. With IPL matches being broadcasted live on YouTube for the first time, viewers in UK, US and Australia are showing keen interest in IPL. [This online strategy has also created a huge buzz in the country.]

There is a danger however – of ad-rates hitting the ceiling, which would therefore divert advertisers to other formats, as Sam Balsara, CMD of Madison World says, "IPL may turn in to a Golden Goose. Due to overhype, the ad-rates of IPL slot is too much now. This may slowly divert advertisers from IPL to other cricketing events. But at this moment IPL is rocking!" As per a London-based brand valuation consultancy Brand Finance, the value of IPL 3 (at $4.13 billion) is twice that of IPL 2 ($ 2.01 billion). But is this growth a sustainable one? Brand Finance says, it is. Even a pumped up Modi says, “IPL will become the world’s biggest sporting brand!”

Coming back to where we started. Should the very expensive $300+ million purchases of the Pune and Kochi camps be questioned? To answer it in a line, when Mallya and Senior Ambani paid hundreds of crores of rupees for two teams, three years back, they earned many criticisms. Today they are earning riches. Undoubtedly, there will be expenditures for the two new teams, but can you forget the umpteen sponsors who are willing to even plaster the batsmen's helmets with their logos? You have our answer right there. Pune & Kochi, the bidding dates are nearing!
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IIPM Editorial, 2009


An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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Friday, March 26, 2010

After many years of waiting, Pranab Mukherjee says RBI will issue licences to new banks

Ever since the banking sector opened up in 1993, the regulator has given out just 12 licenses (of which 10 were given in the first year, while two were given in 2002 to Kotak Mahindra Bank and YES Bank). Therefore, this announcement came as a good tiding to many public, private players and NBFCs (of the likes of Shriram Capital, Sahara, Reliance Capital, the Aditya Birla Nuvo group, Bajaj Auto group, L&T Finance, Tata Capital, Indiabulls, Religare, Exim Bank, IFCI and SIDBI), who have for long, worked on blueprints to make a name in the Indian retail banking arena. To represent the joys at the bourses in numbers, at the end of the Union Budget day, the Religare stock (an NBFC) had inched up by 3 per cent, Aditya Birla Nuvo gained 4 per cent, Reliance Capital grew by 8.1 per cent while Bajaj Auto Finance surged 5.3 per cent. Expressing his intentions in this regard, Sunil Godhwani, CEO & MD, Religare Enterprise, says, “Banking is a natural progression for any integrated financial services player...” As a company official says, “Religare is currently waiting for a banking licence, and at present, talks are on with the ministry.”

The entry of these new players in a sector which at present has 96 scheduled commercial banks [27 public sector banks (which hold over 75 per cent of the total assets of the banking industry), 31 private banks and 38 foreign banks], with a combined network of over 53,000 branches, will not only increase competition and dilute PSU involvement, but will force some change in the functioning of the banking domain as a whole. But despite hopes that these new banking aspirants will increase penetration of banking services in the country (only 6.4 per cent of the branches of new private banks are in rural areas), the question is: are they prepared yet?

Under the current guidelines, a new private sector bank should have a minimum net worth of Rs three billion, and no single entity or group of related entities can hold more than 10 per cent in a bank. There is a distinct possibility that RBI may increase the minimum net worth limit to at least Rs five billion, but many participants are confident of making the cut; one of whom is Ajay Srinivasan, CEO, Birla Financial Services, who says, “We welcome this initiative and will definitely apply for a licence. We are confident of meeting any eligibility criteria that might be set.” While talking about the change in the eligibility criteria for these new entrants, Usha Thorat, Deputy Governor of RBI says, “We have to work on it. It’s a long process and will take some time.”

Evidently, RBI is not pleased with Pranabda’s positively eager approach on opening up; and however hard the Ministry of Finance may try, RBI has historically been known to have the wherewithal to pull the plugs where necessary. How long before this ‘promise’ becomes a ‘policy’? Two years is our estimate; earlier is our hope; right now is an impossibility – forget it!
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IIPM Editorial, 2009


An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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Thursday, March 25, 2010

Another Rs.8000 crore was allocated for the drinking water scheme, only Rs.3362 crore is spent, only 42 per cent of the allocated amount. Similarly, even in the case of one of the most imperative programmes, irrigation benefit programme, Rs.9700 crore was allocated but only Rs.3689 crore was actually invested, again 68 per cent of the fund remained underutilised. Even the Gramin VidyutiKaran Yojana is grossly underutilised by 42.8 per cent. More interestingly, the most hyped and popular programme, UPA led NREGA program which was intended to sort out the major problem of unemployment in rural India is 43 per cent underutilised. Surprisingly, a total of Rs.39100 crore was allocated for this scheme during the fiscal year 2009-10 where only Rs.22295 crore is actually spent. There is only one project where actual spending has crossed the allocation. The PM Gram Sadak Yojana, while Rs.12000 crore had been allocated for this, around Rs.13045 crore is spent, making 108.7 per cent of the allocation. About 40 per cent of funds allocated for flagship programmes, remain unused every year, which if used properly can bring a major infrastructural and social shift.

It is not just about underutilisation of funds that is haunting the nation; widespread corruption is also making such projects ineffective. There is poor transparency and no accountability as to how money is allocated and actually spent. More shockingly, government is also not too serious about this. In a post budget interaction, when we asked Manish Tewari, spokesperson of All India Congress Committee who was proud of the fact that his party stands for the common man because they hiked the Kerosene price by only 90 paise, whether he has taken adequate initiatives to stop Kerosene leakages to ensure the subsidy to reach to the poor, his reply was “The issue is not a part of the budget.” This clearly shows how the Indian polity is committed to the national cause. But can we afford it?
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IIPM Editorial, 2009


An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Anti-Cuba terrorist groups

For close to four decades now, anti-Cuba terrorist groups based in Miami have been involved in a number of terrorist activities against Cuba, or against everyone who campaigns for normalisation of affairs between the US and Cuba. According to several estimates, nearly 3,000 Cubans have died as a result of their actions.

The world watched in dismay when terrorist Luis Posada Carriles was released from jail in the US. Posada Carriles masterminded the 1976 bombing of a Cuban airliner, which killed 73 people, and a string of bombings of Havana hotels and nightclubs in 1997. Efforts to extradite him to Venezuela, where he is also wanted in the jetliner bombing, have failed. Radical groups in Miami like ‘Commandos F4’ and ‘Brothers to the Rescue’, function with absolute impunity from the US soil to attack Cuba – with the knowledge and occasional support of the FBI and the CIA. It was to contain them that Cuba decided to send them to Miami to monitor the activities of these radical groups. After several months of meticulous planning, the Five, or the Miami Five as they are called at times, managed to infiltrate the group and started sending warning about the imminent attacks.

However, the FBI arrested the Five on September 12, 1998, and held them in internment for 17 months in Miami jail. The seven-month-long trial was a virtual witch-hunt. Defence attorneys’ motions for a change of venue were declined on five occasions by the judge, although it was obvious that a fair trial was close to impossible in Miami. Finally, on June 8, 2001, the sentence was passed. However, on August 9, 2005, the Five won the right of appeal. A three-judge panel of the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals overturned the convictions of the Cuban Five and ordered a new trial outside Miami. However, in an unpredicted reversal on October 31, the 11th Circuit Court vacated the three-judge panel’s ruling and granted an “en banc” hearing before the full panel of 12 judges. The panel voted 10 to two to deny them a new trial.

The case still lingers on.
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IIPM Editorial, 2009


An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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Friday, March 19, 2010

Anand Mahindra has taken his group company to many territories uncharted by him

However indisputable might be Mahindra’s leadership intent, the truth also is that striving hard to break beyond past estimates, Anand Mahindra has bet upon a few areas in recent times, which might either succeed in achieving the visionary targeted result for the group or could hit the group situationally extremely hard. Be it the $625 million acquisition of the troubled Satyam in April 2009, which made this conglomerate the de facto #4 in the IT sector, or the IPO of Mahindra Holidays & Resorts in June 2009, that was oversubscribed 10 times over, Anand Mahindra’s recent leadership charge for his $6.7 billion brigade is a brilliant case study that is in the historic making.

Truly, as far as Mahindra Group’s profit margins are concerned, the Q3 FY2009-10 results are not quite a treat for the onlookers. During the quarter, the group’s operating margins dipped by 2% (at 14.54% of revenues) as compared to the previous quarter. This disclosure led to a 5.5% dip in the company’s share price, which closed at Rs.1,071.25 on January 25, 2010, the day the Q3 results were announced, thereby marking the biggest slump at the bourses for the giant over the past five months. Yes, one of the prime reasons for the aforesaid fall in profitability was the rise in commodity prices, which over the past quarter, have increased by a considerable 1.7%, thereby affecting the group’s bottomlines directly; but a focus was also subsequently raised by the industry and even competitors on whether Mahindra was, or was not, prepared for the more than expected cost pressures (Shashank Srivastava, CGM, Marketing, Maruti Suzuki, while adding that Mahindra is currently one of the toughest competitors that Maruti has in the Indian market, shared with B&E, “Anand Mahindra has built a very strong organisational structure within the group, but what fascinates me most are the experiments that the company has done over the past years. For instance, in the case of its auto business, be it the Xylo or the Logan, both of them have helped the company’s image grow beyond that of just being a Jeep-maker in the country.”) Especially because Anand Mahindra has traditionally espoused the Welch way of being amongst the top within their operational sectors and of not settling for anything less (“We have always aimed for the No.1 or No.2 spot in the segments that we operate in...” Anand Mahindra tells B&E).
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IIPM Editorial, 2009


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Thursday, March 18, 2010

Fear has driven as many as 40 men of a special anti-Maoist police outfit to desert their posts in Orissa’s red corridor

Gripped by panic, several policemen posted in the Maoist-affected areas of Orissa have committed suicide. Two years back, one sub-inspector of Motu police station in Malkangiri district killed himself after receiving a threat from Naxals. Last year, a CRPF jawan posted in the same district shot himself for much the same reason. Last month, an SPO (special police officer) of Mathili police station of Malkangiri committed suicide after Maoist extremists threatened him with dire consequences if he did not quit the job.

To recover lost ground and restore confidence among tribals, the Orissa government took an initiative last year to deploy tribal youths as SPOs to tackle the Maoists. But after the killing of three such SPOs, more than 20 SPOs have quit their job. Unwilling to be identified, one SPO told TSI, “Life is more precious than a government job.” According to a rough assessment, over 150 police personnel posted in Maoist-affected areas of the state have managed to get transfers to safer places in the past two years.

This isn’t only about security personnel. Government servants, contractors, businessmen, shopkeepers, and even elected representatives are fleeing from Maoist intimidation. Last month 15 elected representatives of Chitrakonda panchayat samiti under Malkangiri district resigned after a Maoist diktat. In the last decade, more than 10,000 civilians of undivided Koraput district are estimated to have migrated to safer parts of the state.

The Orissa government does recognise the magnitude of the problem but is at its wit's end. Chief minister Naveen Patnaik, who also holds the home portfolio, has been accusing the Congress-led UPA government of not cooperating with the state in the latter’s anti-Naxal drive.

The leader of the Opposition in the state Assembly and senior Congress legislator Bhubinder Singh dismissed Patnaik's allegation and blamed the Orissa government for the failure to combat the Maoists. Singh said, “Patnaik is hoping to achieve victory without jumping into the battlefield. He has held the home department for an entire decade. And it is this decade of inaction that has witnessed the spread of the red corridor in Orissa."

No matter who eventually wins this inevitable political blame game, it is becoming disturbingly obvious that Orissa is in ‘unsafe’ hands. The law is literally on the run in the state’s Maoist-infested districts. The common man is a sitting duck.
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IIPM Editorial, 2009


An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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Wednesday, March 17, 2010

‘culture unfriendly’

One answer could lie in domain specialisation. Often, successful matches are about balancing off the expat leader’s specialisation with the cultural functional void in his/her profile. When Brian Tempest was employed in Ranbaxy Laboratories, the R&D expertise that he enabled helped the company immensely. K. R. Kim, former LG India head honcho, was taken up by Videocon as the company planned a radical branding and business transformation. And the top management is quite pleased so far with his efforts. “Appointing a foreign national as the CEO of a company such as Tata Motors and Ranbaxy with deep Indian roots makes sense when the goals to be achieved are clearly defined,” says Vikas Pota, MD, Saffron Chase. Infosys goes one step ahead. It recruits a person in the top management position only if the individual – irrespective of nationality – has grown within the company over time from lower positions (and thereforeknows the company’s culture inside out), “but a leader has to have specialisation in at least one domain,” says CEO Kris Gopalakrishnan.

The aviation industry has been striving for global standards of service, so it is logical that expats make their presence felt. Nikos Kardassis, who held the post of CEO at Jet Airways from 1993 to 1999, truly transformed the way global counterparts looked at the Indian aviation industry. Kardassis joined back Jet Airways in 2008 and was appointed as the acting CEO in 2009 after Wolfgang Prock-Schauer resigned from the post. Similarly, Bruce Ashby, who was the President at Indigo Airlines from 2006-2008 played a major role in establishing Indigo as a prominent player in the Indian aviation sphere. But Jet Airways learnt some painful lessons while dealing with expats. Schaeur, for instance, first resigned in 2007 to join Kingfisher Airlines but Naresh Goyal persuaded the Austrian to stay back. But things got complicated, as the Indian pilots and other employees developed an acrimonious relationship with expat employees. Schaeur was practically invisible from the rift between the airlines and the pilots last year.

Organised retail is another instance of a sector in India seeking global best practices. People like retail truly stood out. During his four-year stint at the company, Andrew Levermore, Ex-CEO, HyperCity, successfully created the brand from scratch. Similarly, Andrew Denby, Ex-CEO, Aditya Birla Retail played a major role in establishing the More brand and after his exit, the retail chain has lost track. However, a report titled ‘India’s Retail Sector: Time to Take Stock’ explains that “relying on foreign talent alone may not a viable long-term option as retention can prove to be a major challenge. Expat salaries itself could cost companies between $500,000 and $600,000, including perks and stock options.” A survey across four continents by HSBC Holdings Plc. says that India comes at the top in terms of earnings and savings and third in terms of a luxurious life for expats. However, it ranks the lowest when it comes to longevity, which measures the score of a country in terms of attracting and retaining expats.
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IIPM Editorial, 2009


An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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Thursday, March 11, 2010

This peace is a tough bet

After the conflicts, the next one year will be deciding force for Ireland

In what has compelled a section of British politicians and analysts to claim that Northern Ireland is once again staring in to “abyss”, the Continuity IRA, a splinter cluster of banned Irish Republican Army (IRA) has shot a police officer and two British soldiers dead. The assassination is a first for a police officeholder in Northern Ireland since 1998. Also, it was for the first time that officers of the elite PSNI (a special force to counter terror activities) were targeted since this paramilitary force was incepted in 2001. Things had changed considerably following the peace deal. The deal saw the disarmament of IRA in 2005 followed by a unity Catholic-Protestant government in 2007.

Response to the incidents has brought quick denunciation from Sinn Fein, the Irish nationalist party that was once close to IRA. However, their statements have been cautiously attuned – calling the “actions” as “counter-productive” and evading until pushed, the word “murder”. The murderers are nonconformist republicans belonging to disparate offshoots from the old Provisional IRA. Ironically the actual target of the rebels appears to be their previous friends in arms, Martin McGuinness – currently joint first minister of Northern Ireland's devolved government – and Gerry Adams, Sinn Fein’s head.

Reacting on the incident, Richard English, an expert on Northern Ireland politics, said, “Next one year is crucial. If the threat from dissidents subdues, it will appear as if Sinn Fein took an acid test and came out unscathed. The fear of falling into abyss will melt forever.” What is now to be seen is whether the rebels can jointly carry on the impetus of the last few days. Triumph would see British soldiers back on the streets and sophisticated anti-terrorist manoeuvres by overt and covert sections of the armed forces – a prospect disliked by Catholics and Protestants alike.
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IIPM Editorial, 2009


An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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Wednesday, March 10, 2010

An exclusive B&E analysis...

M&As in the auto/truck sector in fact saw an increase by 31% to reach $86.3 billion in 2008. The largest deal here was the acquisition of 87.2% stake in Continental by Schaeffler for $35.6 billion. The going does not seem to be too great here. Both companies are now struggling under a combined debt of around Euro 21 billion and even the integration is taking longer than expected. Continental Chairman Hubertus von Gruenberg has reportedly resigned over dissatisfaction with Schaeffler’s integration plan. As Kalpana Jain, Senior Director, Deloitte, puts it, “Just because valuations are good, it doesn’t mean you have to acquire. Succumbing to the hype of M&A can lead to mistakes.” 2008 also saw a major M&A from India, that of Jaguar-Land Rover by Tata Motors. Since that was also a debt funded acquisition, Tata Motors is also facing problems as its risk profile has worsened.

Also, falling commercial vehicle sales have affected its cash position, due to which ICRA has downgraded Tata Motors’ short term debt rating to A1. The technology sector, which saw the disappointment of the failed Microsoft bid for Yahoo! seems to be on the brink of excitement once again. Chances are that talks could renew between the two companies, though there is no official confirmation. HP acquired EDS last year for $13.9 billion to strengthen its services offerings. Last year saw Indian IT firms HCL Technologies and Infosys locked in a fierce battle to acquire SAP consulting firm Axon, which was ultimately won by the former with its bid of $620 million. Clearly, Indian IT firms are looking hard to diversify and would be on the prowl for targets. And on the global front, there is now news of IBM possibly going for a dose of ‘sun’shine, with talks to acquire Sun Microsystems for nearly $7 billion, to upstage HP.

Even the aviation sector saw heightened M&A activity in 2008, led by the Delta-Northwest merger, which we will discuss shortly. Telecommunications saw a drop in M&A activity in 2008 by 19% to reach $250.5 billion in value. Reliance’s and Bharti’s race for MTN ended in sorrow, but India saw a big ticket inbound deal when Japanese firm NTT Docomo acquired stake in Tata Teleservices for $2.6 billion. Also, Telenor has acquired 67.25% of Unitech Wireless for Rs.61.2 billion. More such deals are expected, since the Indian market shows promise even in slowdown.
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IIPM Editorial, 2009


An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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Friday, March 05, 2010

An epilogue to the financial crash: the rise

With low penetration levels coupled with climbing growth rates, the Indian mutual Fund industry is all set to unleash its true potential. by Manish K. Pandey

If you love drama, emotion, pathos, watching The Tragedy of the Moor of Venice – Othello – on Broadway could be an option; the other could be investing in the Indian mutual fund (MF) industry. It had it all packaged for you in 2009. From negative returns that saw several portfolios bleed to death to positive returns as high as 160% garnered by few schemes, from fund houses running for cover to banks at the start of the year (during 2008 fund houses had incurred heavy losses leaving the industry shattered with a huge liquidity crunch) to the same banks banking on them for profitability during the latter half of the year, the MF industry took investors on a roller-coaster ride in 2009 as the benchmark index Sensex oscillated between the 9,000 and 17,000 mark.

Apart from dramatic stock market performance, the year gone by was the year of reforms for MFs in India. The key changes included elimination of entry and exit loads on purchase of schemes and the government allowing MFs to be traded on the bourses. While some were in favour of investors, others pampered the industry. Whatever the situation may have been at the start of 2009, most investors definitely seemed relaxed and happy as the year approached its end.

But the question now is – how will the year 2010 unfold for this beleaguered industry that is still adjusting to the regulatory changes? Will the promise of growth sustain in the near future? Is the sector ready to bounce back? A quick look at numbers and one probably would get an impression that not many are interested in investing in the sector. In fact, the MF industry just saw its 5th consecutive month of net outflows. The net outflows in December 2009 were to the tune of Rs.1.57 trillion (though the net inflow for the year to date stood at Rs.1.41 trillion). What’s more? The profitability of the asset management companies (AMCs) that clocked an average of 23% in 2006 was down by about 28% to an average of 16.5% during 2009. But then, that’s just a narrow picture. A broader look at the macroeconomic scenario of the industry and you get it all right.

Driven by various favourable socio-economic factors such as rising income levels and the extending reach of AMCs, the Indian MF industry has grown considerably in the past few years (Indian MF industry grew at a 25% CAGR during 2004-2009 to reach an AUM of $150 billion in March 2009). However, despite clocking growth rates that are amongst the highest in the world, it continues to be a very small market comprising just 0.32% share of the global AUM of $20.34 trillion as of June 2009. Though the ratio of AUM to India’s GDP has gradually increased from 6% in 2005 to 11% in 2009, it’s still significantly lower than the ratio in developed countries, where AUM accounts for 20-70% of the GDP. And that’s what holds the key to its success going forward starting 2010.
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IIPM Editorial, 2009


An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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Tuesday, March 02, 2010

Goods and Services Tax is the latest term being thrown at us in the long list of tax reforms that the government has planned.

In the Book of Genesis in the Hebrew Bible, Saint Joseph says, “But when the crop comes in, give a fifth of it to Pharaoh. The other four-fifths you may keep as seed for the fields and as food for yourselves and your households and your children.” While the Pharaohs have given way to the Government (that’s easy), the ‘one-fifth’ has become a ‘one-third’ (almost)! But interestingly, what St. Joseph says is equally relevant in the context of indirect taxes as well – paying a part of the produced goods to the governing authority in one’s state.

Today, the stage is being set in India for the Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime to be launched from the next financial year; positioned as a tax reform to make life easier for consumers as well as producers. More importantly, it is supposed to enable the government to play its Big Brother role much more effectively, by ensuring that tax theft is minimised. But is it really going to benefit Indians like it promises to?

The introduction of the Value Added Tax (VAT) regime in the country in 2005 was cited as a watershed moment in modern India’s post liberalisation history by legions of experts and it has indeed paid dividends. The combined Central and State tax revenues registered a leap in the very next financial year post VAT introduction, and have followed the new trajectory ever since. The tax to GDP ratio, a critical indicator of the fiscal health, has also shown similar jumps over the last 3 years over earlier periods. Now, with the upper echelons of the government setting the ball rolling for the introduction of GST, the frenzy on its far reaching consequences in transforming India’s economy has reached fever pitch. But a reality check reveals a rather crooked picture.

As declared in the Budget speech this year by the Finance Minister Mr. Pranab Mukherjee, the GST will be imposed as a dual tax by the Centre as well as the states and it will do away with the Central Sales Tax (CST). At the same time, it brings services also into the ambit of the states’ taxation under State GST. This makes it imperative that the ‘timing’ and ‘place’ of supply of goods and services must be recorded and monitored constantly, especially in the case of services.
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IIPM Editorial, 2009


An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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